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September 20, 2025International Journal of Finance & Economics4 citations

Dynamic Connectedness Between a Corporate Bond Market With WTI, Geopolitical and Financial Volatility: Spillover From Post‐COVID‐19 and Russian‐Ukrainian Clash

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USUmer ShahzadKMKamel Si MohammedMKMohammad Sharif Karimi

Key Points

  • The analysis shows significant interconnections in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
  • Empirical findings indicate that geopolitical risks and financial uncertainty notably impact corporate bonds, particularly during volatile periods.
  • Using advanced TVP-Vector autoregressive methods, we assessed dynamic relationships in the market, highlighting critical periods of influence.
  • These insights suggest a need for policymakers to adapt monetary strategies in response to evolving financial landscapes amid global uncertainties.

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between the USA's corporate bond market (CB) and various factors, including WTI, financial uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. We employ two advanced techniques to analyse these relationships: TVP‐Vector autoregressive (TVP‐VAR) and VAR connectedness. Specifically, we focus on two significant events, the Russian‐Ukrainian conflict (RUC) and the COVID‐19 pandemic (C19P), to provide insights into the behaviour of the CB during these critical periods against the oil prices and uncertainties. The empirical analysis reveals compelling findings, particularly concerning the extreme events and the magnitude of effects observed. We find a significant increase in interconnections over the time impacts during these two events, lending support to using an asymmetric and heterogeneous product over the time‐varying. Furthermore, we observe that the influence of the GPR and the VIX factors is more robust when uncertainty rises rather than decreases, indicating temporary events. Policymakers and macroprudential authorities can benefit from these findings, as they emphasise the need to adapt to a changing monetary policy and reduce reliance on energy volatility to make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.

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Cite This Study

Shahzad et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68d46fcd31b076d99fa69fc7https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.70037
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