Abstract Objective This study aimed to explore the predictive efficacy of a nomogram based on the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism, vascular disease, age, and sex category (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) score in predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence following first-time catheter ablation in patients with symptomatic AF. Methods Clinical data of 398 patients were collected and analyzed. Patients were divided into a recurrence group ( n = 81) and a non-recurrence group ( n = 317). Key predictive factors were identified through univariate and multivariate analyses, and a nomogram was subsequently constructed using the R programming language. Results The duration of AF, recurrence during the blanking period, neutrophil granulocyte count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red blood cell distribution width, and left atrial diameter (LAD) were identified as independent risk factors for AF recurrence ( p 0.5). Conclusion A nomogram incorporating the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score was developed to predict the recurrence of AF following ablation. It demonstrated promise in predicting the probability of recurrence 12 months post-ablation. However, further validation is required to confirm its reliability and generalizability.
Jiang et al. (2025) studied this question.