What’s the Matter with the Democrats?

ABSTRACT: It’s been a hard year for the Democrats. Well before concerns over President Joe Biden’s age rocked the presidential campaign, the party was forced to confront a grim political reality: voters did not decisively prefer them to the Republicans. Despite Donald Trump’s criminal conviction, open bigotry, history of sexual assault, semi-incoherent ramblings, and general unfitness for office; despite January 6, the end of national abortion rights, and the stumbles of the Republican House majority; despite a notable drop in violent crime and an economy that is performing statistically as well as it has in years—the best Democrats could hope for in November was a slim victory. Whatever effect swapping Biden for Harris might have, it won’t alter the underlying reality: the Democrats are roughly as popular as Trump’s Republicans, and the general election could be decided by a coin flip.