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This study examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the performance of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite Index from 2014 to 2023, focusing on four key variables: interest rates, inflation, money supply (M2), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the research investigates the short-term dynamics between these variables. The findings show that in the VAR estimation, only the lag 1 M2 value has a statistically significant coefficient. However, the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis reveals that shocks to the Bank Indonesia rate, inflation, money supply, and GDP initially cause significant fluctuations in the Jakarta Stock Exchange price index, but these effects are short-lived, with the index stabilizing around zero after several periods. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic conditions for making informed stock market decisions.
Widhiyaffa Akbariaza (2024) studied this question.