Statistical Machine Learning for Power Flow Analysis Considering the Influence of Weather Factors on Photovoltaic Power Generation

It is generally accepted that the impact of weather variation is gradually increasing in modern distribution networks with the integration of high-proportion photovoltaic (PV) power generation and weather-sensitive loads. This article analyzes power flow using a novel stochastic weather generator (SWG) based on statistical machine learning (SML). The proposed SML model, which incorporates generative adversarial networks (GANs), probability theory, and information theory, enables the generation and evaluation of simulated hourly weather data throughout the year. The GAN model captures various weather variation characteristics, including weather uncertainties, diurnal variations, and seasonal patterns. Compared to shallow learning models, the proposed deep learning model exhibits significant advantages in stochastic weather simulation. The simulated data generated by the proposed model closely resemble real data in terms of time-series regularity, integrity, and stochasticity. The SWG is applied to model PV power generation and weather-sensitive loads. Then, we actively conduct a power flow analysis (PFA) on a real distribution network in Guangdong, China, using simulated data for an entire year. The results provide evidence that the GAN-based SWG surpasses the shallow machine learning approach in terms of accuracy. The proposed model ensures accurate analysis of weather-related power flow and provides valuable insights for the analysis, planning, and design of distribution networks.