Probabilistic acoustic predictions leveraging NESBA and ARGO measurements

Ocean acoustic propagation models used for sonar performance prediction often rely on global or regional ocean modeling and data assimilation, or monthly climatologic averages, for estimating the 4D ocean temperature and salinity (T/S) field. Ocean models rely heavily on satellite-based ocean surface measurements, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST) and height (SSH), plus typically vastly less resolved in space and time vertical water column measurements derived using ship-based and/or ARGO float instruments. Systems also exist that create 3D synthetic T/S fields from satellite SST/SSH measurements, e.g., the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) and the more recent Improved Synthetic Ocean Profile (ISOP) system. It is unclear, however, how well these synthetic T/S fields capture significant ocean ducting conditions. Similarly, climatologic averages combine historical vertical T/S profile data in spatial cells by month; but the averaging process tends to blur out important features. This talk will address the use of 2021 New England Shelf Break Acoustics (NESBA) experiment and ARGO vertical profile data for: (1) testing the degree to which ocean models or climatology capture important acoustic features under a range of conditions; and (2) providing more realistic sonar performance prediction means and uncertainties. Work supported by the Office of Naval Research.