ABSTRACT Market opportunities fluctuate for Ultra Low‐Cost Carriers (ULCCs) in US commercial aviation. This paper examines the industry growth of ULCCs through a taxonomy based on infrastructure, equipment, people, and technology. The focus then turns to estimates from a panel of market data to model the behavior of four carrier classes, including ULCCs and National Legacy Carriers (NLCs). The model helps investigate the evolution of the aviation market structure in the US via estimates of how ULCCs and NLCs respond to population, tourism, per capita income, and service levels. Through this growth phase, ULCCs matched NLCs in responding to some factors but differed significantly in others. The findings suggest that airlines examine their relationships with the system's basic elements and interdependence among carriers before determining developing responses. Further, airline managers and other managers in the industry, for example, airport directors, should consistently reexamine responses to market changes.
LeMay et al. (2025) studied this question.