Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Forecasting of Ecosystem Service Value in Zhengzhou Using Land-Use Scenario Simulation

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is a critical indicator of regional ecological well-being. Assessing and forecasting ESV are essential for achieving the coordinated development of environmental and economic systems. This study employs the SD-PLUS model, integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change (LUCC), as well as ESV in Zhengzhou from 2030 to 2040. It analyses the impact of various driving factors on ESV and examines the spatial correlations among ecosystem services across different regions. The results indicate that the total ESV is expected to decrease by 73.53 × 107 yuan, primarily due to significant reductions in cropland and water areas. By 2040, ESV is projected to increase by 14.51 × 107 yuan under the SSP126 scenario, decrease by 73.18 × 107 yuan under the SSP585 scenario, and show a moderate decline under the SSP245 scenario. Climate factors, transportation location, and topographical features have a significantly positive impact on ESV, while environmental and socioeconomic factors exert a negative influence. The analysis of interrelationships among ecosystem services shows that synergies dominate, especially between supporting and cultural services, with only localised trade-offs observed. These findings contribute valuable insights for the development of scientifically sound, well-reasoned, and efficient strategies for ecological conservation and sustainable development.