Modern power grids face increasing stress from volatile, high-dynamics loads, such as Electric Vehicle (EV) charging clusters and intermittent renewable energy sources. Accurate transformer thermal monitoring via the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 60076-7 and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) C57.91 standards is crucial, yet their methodologies differ significantly. This study develops a comprehensive MATLAB simulation framework to quantify these differences. The analysis compares physical thermal models across multi-stage cooling—Oil Natural Air Natural (ONAN), Oil Natural Air Forced (ONAF), and Oil Forced Air Forced (OFAF)—and insulation aging models. It is demonstrated that divergence in transformer life estimation stems primarily from the physical thermal models. A ‘reversal of conservatism’ is identified, where ‘conservative’ is defined as predicting higher hot-spot temperatures and enforcing a larger safety margin. Results prove that while the IEC model is thermally more conservative during cooling failures (static mode), the IEEE model is consistently more conservative during normal active cooling. Additionally, 2D “heat maps” are presented to define safe operational zones, and the catastrophic impact of cooling system failures is quantified. These findings provide a quantitative outline for managing transformer state under increasingly demanding loading schemes.
Staszewski et al. (2025) studied this question.