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December 6, 2025Philosophy and Phenomenological Research0 citations

Bayesian Convergence for Computably Bounded Agents

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SHSimon M. HutteggerSWSean Walsh

Key Points

  • Bayesian convergence to the truth is tied to data streams for computably bounded agents, indicating significant philosophical insights.
  • Notably, the relationship between Bayesian reasoning and algorithmic randomness is explored to enhance understanding of convergence to truth.
  • Incorporating computable probability measures leads to critical implications for the foundations of Bayesian epistemology regarding truth.
  • The model challenges existing skeptical arguments by presenting a robust account of how algorithmic randomness supports Bayesian convergence.

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this article, we pursue two goals. First, we argue that computable probability theory offers a fitting framework for modeling the credences of computably bounded—and, thus, more realistic—Bayesian reasoners. Second, we develop a Bayesian perspective on algorithmic randomness: a branch of computability theory that provides a formal account of what it takes for a sequence of observations (a data stream) to be probabilistically typical in an algorithmically specifiable way. In particular, we argue that adopting such a perspective leads to novel insights for one of the pillars of Bayesian epistemology: Bayesian convergence to the truth. In a companion article, we showed that, for Bayesian agents whose credences are given by computable probability measures, the data streams that guarantee convergence to the truth coincide with the algorithmically random ones. Here, we put these results to use to counter various skeptical arguments which target the philosophical significance of Bayesian convergence‐to‐the‐truth theorems.

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Cite This Study

Huttegger et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/694020fd2d562116f28fb67dhttps://doi.org/10.1111/phpr.70079
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