Based on a nonlinear effective stress coefficient calculation method, this study investigates the nonlinear stress sensitivity of permeability in deep shale gas reservoirs through high-temperature, high-pressure experiments on matrix, unpropped fracture, and propped fracture samples. Furthermore, the influence of different effective stress models on production performance in deep shale gas wells was investigated using the PETREL integrated fracturing production simulation module. Results reveal significant nonlinearity in the effective stress behavior of all media, with matrix samples showing much stronger permeability stress sensitivity than fracture samples. Numerical simulations revealed that horizontal well productivity under the nonlinear effective stress model was lower than predictions from the net stress model, providing critical theoretical and technical foundations for the large-scale and efficient development of deep marine shale gas reservoirs in the Sichuan Basin and emphasizing the importance of accurate stress models for production performance forecasting.
Yang et al. (2026) studied this question.