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January 22, 2026The Quarterly Journal of Economics2 citations

The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia

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TBTanguy BernardSDStefan DerconKOKate Orkin

Key Points

  • To investigate how changing aspirations influences investment decisions and economic outcomes in rural Ethiopia.
  • Conducted a randomised control trial in remote rural Ethiopian communities.
  • Implemented an intervention featuring video documentaries of relatable role models who escaped poverty.
  • Measured changes in future-oriented investments five years post-intervention.
  • Treated households increased investments in agriculture, children's education, and assets.
  • Participants reported higher aspirations related to lifetime goals.
  • Evidence suggests the intervention has a lasting economic impact on the population.

Abstract

Abstract Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomised control trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention which aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations and, through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and serve as relatable role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households had increased future-oriented investments in agriculture, children’s education and assets. The results can be explained by an increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.

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Cite This Study

Bernard et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6971be10642b1836717e2b5ahttps://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjag002
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