Assessment of Premium Citrus Fruit Production Potential Based on Multi-Spectral Remote Sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Citrus, as a globally important economic crop, requires accurate assessment of premium fruit production potential for precise orchard management and enhanced economic benefits. This study develops a method for assessing the production potential of premium citrus using UAV-based multispectral imagery and ground data. Taking citrus orchards in Wuming District, Guangxi, China, as the experimental area, this study investigates techniques for assessing the production potential of premium fruit at the canopy scale of citrus trees in southern hilly regions, aiming to rapidly predict the quality production potential of citrus before fruit ripening. The methodology involved the following: (1) Segmenting the study area using a Digital Surface Model (DSM) and extracting individual tree canopies by integrating NDVI with a marker-controlled watershed algorithm. Canopy fruit boundaries were identified using the NPCI index. (2) Selecting key assessment indicators—NDVI, TCAVI, REOSAVI, canopy area, and fruit area—through correlation analysis with nutritional quality metrics. (3) Establishing threshold levels for these indicators and constructing a production potential assessment model. Experimental results demonstrated an individual tree identification accuracy (precision) of 98.75%, a recall of 98.47%, and an F-score of 98.61%. Canopy area extraction achieved a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.869 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.489 m2. The overall accuracy for production potential assessment reached 85.11%. This study provides a new approach for using UAV multispectral technology to non-destructively assess the production potential of premium citrus in the hilly regions of southern China, offering technical support for precise orchard management.