Cash‐Based Assistance Versus In‐Kind Aid in Conflict Zone: A System Dynamics Evaluation of Humanitarian Effectiveness in Sudan

ABSTRACT This paper applies system dynamics modeling to compare the effectiveness of cash‐based assistance (CBA) and in‐kind aid in conflict‐affected Sudan. Using primary data collected from local stakeholders, the model simulates aid distribution dynamics under three conflict intensity scenarios: Constant violence, intensified violence, and declining violence. The study evaluates both reachability and cost efficiency of each aid modality across these scenarios. Findings suggest that Policy A—expanding the number of capable local actors—improves aid delivery in all contexts but is, particularly, effective under intensified violence, where in‐kind aid supported by widespread local engagement is more resilient. In contrast, Policy B, which shifts aid allocation toward CBA, proves more efficient in the constant and declining violence scenarios, where reduced transaction costs and greater flexibility enhance delivery. The research highlights the need for adaptive aid strategies tailored to evolving security conditions and emphasizes the critical role of local actors in optimizing humanitarian response.