Abstract This study investigates the potential of localized total electron content (TEC) perturbation measurements, possibly associated with bottomside upwelling of the F‐layer, as precursors for forecasting ionospheric plasma irregularities, particularly the equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs). We utilize TEC measurements from the Coherent Electromagnetic Radio Tomography (CERTO) onboard C/NOFS satellite, received by a GNU Radio Beacon Receiver (GRBR) at Phuket (8N, 98.32E; dip latitude N) to identify early signatures of the F‐layer upwelling in the evening sector, within the field‐of‐view of the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) at Kototabang (0.2S, 100.3E, dip latitude S). Simultaneous occurrences of EPBs are monitored using the scanning capability of EAR, enabling a direct comparison between the observed TEC perturbations and the development of EPBs. Additionally, ionosonde measurements from Chumphon (10.5N, 99.4E; dip latitude N) are employed to substantiate these findings. The 445‐day analysis (2012–2014) under varying solar and geomagnetic conditions shows that while TEC perturbations often precede EPBs, not all lead to their development. EPB occurrence has been found to vary with perturbation amplitude, inferring that only certain perturbation strengths are conducive to EPB formation. Further, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicates that a TEC perturbation threshold of 5.65% yields a prediction accuracy of 96%, providing a lead time of 18–86 min. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of a satellite‐ground network comprising low‐inclination satellites with GRBR‐like receivers, sequentially traversing the same longitude sector at 30‐min intervals, for real‐time monitoring and forecasting of EPBs over a broad longitudinal sector.
Das et al. (2026) studied this question.