Athletes showed increased native T1 and extracellular volume values indicative of cardiac remodeling, with a Gradient Boosting Machine model achieving an AUC of 0.899.
Can machine learning models based on T1 mapping from cardiovascular magnetic resonance predict cardiac remodeling and/or myocardial fibrosis in athletes?
Machine learning models using CMR T1 mapping and extracellular volume parameters can accurately predict cardiac remodeling and myocardial fibrosis in athletes.
Introduction: This study aimed to predict the occurrence of cardiac remodeling and/or myocardial fibrosis using machine learning based on T1 mapping from cardiovascular magnetic resonance in athletes. Methods: A total of 104 athletes and 20 healthy sedentary controls underwent a 3.0T cardiovascular magnetic resonance scan. Cardiac function parameters, T1 and extracellular volume, were measured for 16 segments of the left ventricle. These parameters were separately compared between athletes and controls, and between the positive and negative athlete groups. Gradient boosting machines, logistic regression, classification and regression trees, and support vector machines were constructed for the prediction of cardiac remodeling and/or myocardial fibrosis. Result: Higher extracellular volume values of segments 1,4,6,8, and 9 and lower native T1 values of segments 8 and 14 were found in athletes than controls (p<0.05). Native T1 values of segments 3,6,8,9,10,14, and 15 and extracellular volume values of segments 3,6, and 8 were higher in the positive athletes group than those in the negative athletes group (p<0.05). The most effective model was the Gradient Boosting Machine, with an AUC of 0.899, an accuracy of 82.7%, a sensitivity of 90.0%, and a specificity of 81.0%. The top three important factors were: the native T1 value of segment 10, the extracellular volume value of segment 3, and body surface area. Conclusion: Native T1 and extracellular volume values increased in athletes with cardiac remodeling, which may reveal the relationship between cardiac remodeling and myocardial fibrosis. Early cardiac magnetic resonance imaging is performed to monitor athletes' native myocardial T1 and ECV values, assess their risk levels, and guide subsequent surge planning to reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events. A GBM model with better performance can predict adverse cardiovascular events based on T1 mapping parameters, and the prediction can be verified by tracking the subsequent athlete's status.
Long et al. (2026) studied this question. Athletes showed increased native T1 and extracellular volume values indicative of cardiac remodeling, with a Gradient Boosting Machine model achieving an AUC of 0.899.