Food Security Assessment in Chinese Most Developed Area From the Perspective of Multi‐Scenario Land Management

ABSTRACT Cultivated land is a foundation for grain production, whereas land resource management policies are institutional safeguards that maintain the functional, qualitative, and quantitative security of farmland. With increasing demand for the non‐agricultural conversion of cultivated land driven by socioeconomic development, changing land resource management policies are progressively affecting the regional foundation of food security. In China's crucial grain‐producing basins, land‐use changes resulting from land resource management practices threaten regional food security. Focusing on grain supply self‐sufficiency, this study simulated future land use in the Taihu Lake Basin using the CLUMondo model. Supply–demand dynamics of the basin's future grain were estimated using the global agroecological zone model and crop‐specific input allocation, revealing food security conditions under varying land resource management policies over 30 years. Under the Natural Development Scenario, the cultivated land area would significantly decrease, leading to a gradual reduction in total potential grain production. The Strict Farmland Protection Scenario would enhance the total production potential and average potential yield by conserving cultivated land, restricting construction land expansion, and developing nonagricultural land reserves. The Coordinated Development Scenario balances economic growth with ecological conservation while maintaining a stable cultivated land scale and ensuring relatively consistent grain deficiency levels. However, due to population growth and other factors, the total grain demand in the basin will further increase, failing to achieve supply–demand equilibrium due to persistent deficits. Nevertheless, considering food security and ecological sustainability, the Coordinated Development Scenario represents the optimal pathway for managing grain supply–demand dynamics in the Taihu Lake Basin. Future strategies should harmonize ecological conservation, food security, and socioeconomic development by maintaining and enhancing farmland quality, while optimizing agricultural production patterns.