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February 2, 2026International Journal of Energy Research2 citationsOpen Access

Predicting Photovoltaic Panel Performance: A Comprehensive Model for Dust Accumulation and Rainfall Impact

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AMAmirmohammad MarzbandMMMojtaba Mirhosseini

Key Points

  • The aim is to develop a comprehensive model for predicting the performance of photovoltaic panels considering dust and rainfall effects.
  • Developed a model integrating three sub-models: one for dust accumulation, one for dust removal during rainfall, and one for power output calculation.
  • Analyzed 1464 hours of meteorological data over 61 days to assess model accuracy.
  • Compared power losses with and without rainfall impact on dust accumulation.
  • Rainfall effectively reduced accumulated dust by approximately 57% during 23 hours of light to moderate rainfall.
  • Power losses decreased from 8.82% to 3.6% due to rainfall effects.
  • Light rainfall can still reduce performance even with minimal dust accumulation, highlighting its importance in energy predictions.

Abstract

The adoption of photovoltaic (PV) technology for energy generation is expanding rapidly, yet performance losses caused by environmental factors such as dust accumulation and rainfall remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a novel and comprehensive model for predicting the power output of PV panels by integrating three distinct sub‐models: one for estimating hourly dust accumulation, another for predicting dust removal during rainfall events, and a third for calculating the resulting power output. Unlike previous studies, this model precisely accounts for the dual impact of dust deposition and rainfall cleaning, which has often been oversimplified or neglected. Using 1464 h of meteorological data (61 days), the model demonstrates that rainfall can significantly reduce accumulated dust, thereby mitigating power losses. Specifically, 23 h of light to moderate rainfall removed approximately 57% of the dust, decreasing power losses from 8.82% to 3.6%. Furthermore, the model highlights that light rainfall, even with minimal dust accumulation, can still reduce performance—an aspect rarely considered in past research. This model provides a valuable tool for better predicting PV panel performance under varying environmental conditions, offering significant implications for PV system operation and maintenance, particularly in dust‐prone areas.

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Cite This Study

Marzband et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6980ffc6c1c9540dea812792https://doi.org/10.1155/er/1024521
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