Assessment of the frequency of hazardous weather events in the southern of Russia in connection with climate change

Over the past 90 years, the frequency of catastrophic floods and inundations has increased. In the period from 1930 to 2000. The frequency of outstanding floods in the Kuban River basin was once every 7 years, on the rivers of the Black Sea coast – once every 6 years. During the period from 2001 to 2022. The frequency of catastrophic floods in the Kuban River basin has increased to 1 flood every 4 years, on the rivers of the Black Sea coast – 1 time in 3 years. Most often, floods and high waters occur in the period May-July (209 cases in 23 years), the peak occurs in June – 100 cases in 23 years. The increase in the number of floods is primarily due to the increase in the number of cases of very heavy precipitation, both area and local (100 mm or more in a period of less than 12 hours). The frequency of very heavy precipitation (100 mm or more) before 2000 was once every 5-7 years; over the past 10 years, precipitation of this intensity has been observed annually, and since 2011 the number of cases of such precipitation in the region reaches 2-4 times a year. The number of registered tornadoes has also increased - for the period 2000-2017, on average 11 tornadoes were recorded per year, for the period 2000-2023 this figure was 18 tornadoes per year. An increase in the duration of the period with high air temperatures in the summer will contribute to an increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the Black and Azov Seas, as well as inland water bodies will contribute to an increase in evaporation in the warm period of the year. As a result, there will be an increase in the number of cases of extreme precipitation, primarily on the Black Sea coast. At the same time, the increase in cases of extreme precipitation will be up to 10% over 10 years. An increase in the duration of the period with maximum water temperatures on the surface of the Black Sea will contribute to the formation of conditions under which the formation of tornadoes in the coastal zone of the Black Sea is more often possible.