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February 5, 20260 citations

Repeated pattern of

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DBDmitry BlinovPNPolina Novikova

Key Points

  • The study aims to examine the relationship between repeating gamma-ray flare patterns in blazars and high-energy neutrino events.
  • Identified flare patterns in the gamma-ray light curve of PKS 1502+106.
  • Analyzed coincidence of high-energy neutrino events from ICECAT-1 with blazars exhibiting repeating flare patterns.
  • Conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to assess accidental coincidences accounting for uncertainties in neutrino arrival directions.
  • Probability of random coincidence between three neutrino candidates and three blazars is 1.56 × 10−3 (3.2σ).
  • Findings support a potential connection between the flare patterns and neutrino events.

Abstract

Context. It has been demonstrated that at least 10% of the brightest blazars in the fourth Fermi-LAT catalog of γ-ray sources exhibit repeating patterns of γ-ray flares. These events may be associated with the presence of a non-uniform sheath surrounding a fast jet spine in some blazars. Theoretical models suggest that such a sheath could facilitate neutrino production in these structured jets. Aims. We aim to test the marginal statistical evidence previously reported for a connection between repeating patterns of γ-ray flares in blazars and high-energy neutrino events that are positionally consistent with these sources. Methods. We identified a repeating pattern of flares in the γ-ray light curve of the blazar PKS 1502+106, which lies within the 50% uncertainty region of the IC190730A neutrino candidate event. This occurrence is combined with two other high-energy (≥200 TeV) neutrino events from ICECAT-1, which arrived in both positional and temporal coincidence with two blazars exhibiting ongoing repeating flare patterns. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the likelihood of accidental coincidences between the repeating flare patterns and neutrino events, accounting for potential unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the arrival directions of the ICECAT-1 events. Results. Our findings indicate the probability of a random coincidence, in both time and arrival direction for three high-energy neutrino candidates and three blazars with ongoing recurring patterns of γ-ray flares, is 1.56 × 10−3 (3.2σ).

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Cite This Study

Blinov et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698434ebf1d9ada3c1fb3a8fhttps://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202453361/pdf
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