Spatial Analysis and Spread Monitoring of a Population of Juniperus macrocarpa Sm. Across Coastal Dune Systems in Northern Tuscany (Italy)

Background: Juniperus macrocarpa Sm. is a key shrub species of the Mediterranean coastal dune systems. The species, considered vulnerable, often shows fragmented or declining populations due to coastal erosion and human pressure. However, along a protected stretch of the northern Tuscany coast it displays an opposite trend, with an apparent expansion of the species. Methods: To assess recent population dynamics, we compared high-resolution aerial imagery from 2013 with UAV orthophotos from 2023 across two dune systems of the Migliarino–San Rossore–Massaciuccoli Regional Park (Italy). The dune profile was divided into three belts (B1: shifting dune; B2: consolidated grassland dune; B3: consolidated juniper dune). A total of 368 plots (10 × 10 m) were analyzed to quantify temporal changes in individual abundance and vegetation cover. Results: Over the ten-year period, total abundance increased from 99 to 342 individuals (+245%) at Lecciona and from 117 to 324 individuals (+177%) at Marina di Vecchiano. Mean cover per plot increased significantly at both sites (overall p < 0.001), with the strongest proportional increases recorded in the seaward belts (B1: up to +1220% in abundance and +4500% in cover) revealing a clear shift from an inner-dune concentration in 2013 to a more homogeneous spatial distribution across the entire dune system in 2023. Conclusions: Under conditions of low anthropogenic disturbance, shoreline stability, or geomorphological progradation, J. macrocarpa is able to expand well beyond its recognized ecological niche. These findings demonstrate the central role of geomorphological and disturbance regimes in driving coastal dune vegetation dynamics and highlight the need for adaptive, site-specific management strategies for the long-term conservation of priority habitat 2250/EUNIS N1B.