Abstract The European Union (EU) faces a unique opportunity to lead a new rules‐based international order in an era of American retreat and heightened global uncertainty. Yet its path to leadership is rife with obstacles. In this article, we draw on international relations literatures on international political economy and comparative politics literatures on state formation to assess the EU's potential as a hegemonic leader. We argue that the EU could spearhead a coalition of like‐minded countries in the post‐American hegemony era, responding to a strong international demand for an open and rules‐based global economy. But whilst the EU possesses considerable strengths, it currently lacks a centralised fiscal capacity and remains militarily underprepared. Nevertheless, we contend that external threats – particularly a second Trump administration and Russian expansionism – have the potential to act as catalysts for deeper European integration, leading to the creation of autonomous military capabilities, a more robust fiscal union and an enhanced international role for the euro. Should this potential be realised, the EU could act as a leader of the new global order.
McNamara et al. (2026) studied this question.