From Engagement to Outcomes: AI-Driven Learning Analytics in Higher Education—Insights for South Africa

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become central to the evolution of learning analytics (LA), transforming how higher-education institutions capture and interpret student engagement data. This narrative review synthesises research published between 2015 and 2025 to examine how AI-driven analytics link learner engagement to measurable academic outcomes, with emphasis on the South-African higher-education context. Drawing on global reviews of AI in education and emerging governance frameworks, the study highlights the shift from traditional dashboards toward deep-learning and transformer-based systems that integrate behavioural, cognitive, and affective indicators. Ethical and policy challenges, particularly around data privacy, transparency, and institutional capacity, remain significant. Grounded in UNESCO and OECD guidance and South Africa’s Protection of Personal Information Act, the review outlines a governance-driven approach for equitable and transparent adoption of AI-enhanced learning analytics. It identifies key challenges, data fragmentation, algorithmic opacity, and limited contextual adaptation, and translates them into practical recommendations for policy, capacity building, and future research. The findings underscore that sustainable AI adoption requires human-centred ethics, robust data governance, and context-sensitive innovation to achieve inclusive and data-driven higher education.