This study examines how the gap between individuals’ income aspirations and actual income – termed the “aspiration gap” – affects life satisfaction. Drawing on self-discrepancy theory and the theory of socially determined aspirations, we propose a structural model in which life satisfaction is shaped not only by the aspiration gap but also by the positive and negative states of individuals. Using harmonized microdata from the 2018 EU-SILC survey for 31 European countries and partial least squares structural equation modelling, we find that a larger aspiration gap is robustly associated with lower life satisfaction, even when we account for affective states and socio-demographic controls. Positive affect independently enhances life satisfaction, while negative affect diminishes it. Moreover, affect moderates the impact of the aspiration gap in the pooled sample, although we do not consistently detect this interaction across all countries. However, the direct relationships between life satisfaction, aspiration gap, and affective states remain highly robust across national contexts. These findings underscore the dual cognitive and affective pathways through which aspirations influence well-being and suggest that fostering positive emotional resources may buffer the psychological costs of unfulfilled goals. Our results from country-specific estimations closely mirror those from the pooled model, indicating that the observed relationships hold consistently across diverse national contexts. The results have implications for policies aimed at promoting realistic goal-setting and emotional resilience to enhance subjective well-being.
Marton et al. (2026) studied this question.