Assessing Cultural Bias in Recidivism Risk Tools: Differential Item Functioning and Predictive Validity of the ORAC-PCQ and LS/CMI Among Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Men in Quebec's Correctional System

Following the Ewert v. Canada case, concerns have emerged regarding the cultural fairness of actuarial risk assessment tools used with Indigenous offenders in Canada. These instruments, largely developed using non-Indigenous samples, may not accurately reflect Indigenous realities and could contribute to systemic bias. This study examined two tools used in Quebec, the ORAC-PCQ and the LS/CMI, to assess potential cultural bias through differential item functioning (DIF) analysis using Raju's method within a Rasch modeling framework. Although both tools showed strong overall predictive validity, several items displayed significant DIF, suggesting possible measurement bias. These findings raise important concerns about the fairness of risk classification for Indigenous individuals. The study recommends adapting these instruments and complementing them with clinical approaches that better account for the historical and systemic factors affecting Indigenous populations. Such adaptations could help ensure more culturally responsive assessment practices and avoid reinforcing long-standing inequities within the Canadian justice system.