China, Russia, and Central Asia: Opportunities and Limits for Actors Great and Small

executive summary: This article examines Russia's and China's relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan and how these five Central Asian states are responding to great-power competition in their region. main argument While there is increasing competition between Russia and China—the dominant actors in Central Asia—the two states' larger goal of countering Western hegemony unites them, and there is little evidence of a crack in their "friendship without limits" that was announced in 2022. Nonetheless, the competition between Russia and China yields space for the Central Asian countries to cooperate with each other and with other states in their search for economic growth, political stability, and security outside Russian or Chinese control. European Union countries, Iran, and especially Turkey have all become increasingly involved in Central Asia. policy implications • The lack of a substantial rift between Russia and China in Central Asia means there is little political ground that can be exploited by the U.S. or others. Any attempt to drive a wedge between the two biggest players using Central Asian states is unlikely to succeed. • The regional dominance of Russia and China, due to their size and geographic positioning, means that any effort to draw the Central Asian states away from either power is also likely to fail. • The desire of the Central Asian states to maintain their independence, combined with their concerns over Russia and China, does create openings for other countries, especially Turkey. Such ties can strengthen the Central Asian states' abilities to pursue more independent policies. • For the U.S., geography, history, and current policies work against a greater role in the region; however, opportunities remain to work with the Central Asian states by focusing on their economic and security interests.