Modeling and Mapping the Climatic Suitability for Viticulture in Greece

Viticulture is a vital sector of agriculture and economy exhibiting susceptibility to climate change, particularly in the Mediterranean regions. The present investigation examines the climatic suitability for vineyards development in Greece by exploiting geomorphological and bioclimatic data for the reference climatic period 1970–2000. The data is sourced from the ERA5-Land dataset and analyzed with R. The objective is to create a specific crop suitability map based on a simple, transparent model implemented through coding. This map identifies the climatically suitable areas for grapevine cultivation during the reference period. Results demonstrate that the model is highly adaptable, as both variable thresholds and areas of interest can be modified, while incorporating future climate scenarios can be performed, allowing for dynamic reconfiguration. According to the mapped climatic suitability, 55.1% of Greece is rated 3.5–4.0, and 12.9% is rated 4.0–4.5. The total suitability over Greece is calculated with a score of 3.5–4.0 for the 50.9% of total area, and for a score of 4.0–4.5, the covered area is 12.9%. Considering the Corine Land Cover classification as the reference land cover dataset, the false-negative areas (the model indicates that an area with vines is not suitable) are only 1.5% of the areas defined as viticultural. By providing clear and accurate spatial information, the model supports informed decision-making and the development of adaptation strategies, enhancing, therefore, the resilience and sustainability of viticulture in the context of climate change.