Statement of the problem. The article examines the relationship between indicators of the reproductive strategy of the population — voluntary childlessness — and the tasks of urban planning justification of urban planning, solved on the basis of simulation modeling and forecasting. The aim of the study is to analyze the causes of the social phenomenon "childfree", expressed in the voluntary abandonment of children for certain reasons, and to model the process of changing the demographic situation taking this phenomenon into account. Results. The analysis of socio-economic development factors influencing the appearance of a group of voluntarily childless people was carried out. Based on the obtained statistical data on demographic indicators, a model of the process of changing the demographic situation of the regions and the country as a whole was developed, reflecting the trends of childbearing. When constructing the model, the hypothesis was accepted that the entire childfree contingent is a subgroup of the able-bodied age group, but is unproductive. The results of the analysis will serve as the basis for selecting the most important mutually influencing factors for building statistical models based on them, predicting the most favorable conditions for the reproduction of the population. Conclusions.Using the constructed model, it is possible to trace the change in the population structure. In practical terms the results of the study can serve as a means of supporting decision-making to improve the quality of life and identify promising trends in urban planning.
Bakaeva et al. (2026) studied this question.