What does this research mean for the field?

The estimated duration for the completion of river improvement projects in response to increased rainfall due to global warming is approximately 100 to 180 years. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to estimate the time and cost needed to complete alterations for flood control in major rivers due to global warming.

February 22, 2026Japanese Journal of JSCE0 citations

Estimation of the Duration for Completion of the Basic Plan for River Improvemenr Wots

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TITadaharu ISHIKAWATokyo Institute of Technology

Key Points

The aim is to estimate the time and cost needed to complete alterations for flood control in major rivers due to global warming.
Analyzed accessible web data related to flood control projects.
Estimated completion time for flood control based on the largest post-war flood.
Evaluated both pre- and post-revision flood control standards.
Estimated completion times are 100 years and 180 years.
Identified potential for extended timelines considering uncertainties in flood control.
Suggested a possible need for a paradigm shift in river improvement projects.

Abstract

地球温暖化に伴う豪雨増大に対処するため，一級河川の基本高水の改定が進められているが，その実現に要する時間や費用については検討されていない．そこで本研究ではWeb上で入手可能なデータを概括し，基本高水相当の治水事業が完遂する時間の「オーダ」を検討した．流域治水1.0で目標とされる「戦後最大規模洪水」を単位として改定前および改定後の基本高水規模を表し，治水事業の完遂時期を推定したところ，100年および180年という結果を得た．さらに，今後の治水事業をめぐる不確実性を考慮すると必要期間はさらに長期化する恐れがあり，河川改修事業のパラダイムシフトが必要になる可能性がある．

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Cite This Study

Tadaharu ISHIKAWA (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699a9ceb482488d673cd2990 https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.25-16184

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February 22, 2026Japanese Journal of JSCE0 citations

Estimation of the Duration for Completion of the Basic Plan for River Improvemenr Wots

View Full Paper

TITadaharu ISHIKAWATokyo Institute of Technology

Key Points

The aim is to estimate the time and cost needed to complete alterations for flood control in major rivers due to global warming.
Analyzed accessible web data related to flood control projects.
Estimated completion time for flood control based on the largest post-war flood.
Evaluated both pre- and post-revision flood control standards.
Estimated completion times are 100 years and 180 years.
Identified potential for extended timelines considering uncertainties in flood control.
Suggested a possible need for a paradigm shift in river improvement projects.

Abstract

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View Full Paper

Cite This Study

Tadaharu ISHIKAWA (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699a9ceb482488d673cd2990 https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.25-16184

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View Full Paper