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February 23, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Forecasting Adoption Rates in Water Treatment Facilities Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Evaluation in Tanzania

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NMNyahigwa MagagilaKMKamali Mwakalasi

Key Points

  • The aim is to evaluate forecasting adoption rates in water treatment facilities using time-series models in Tanzania.
  • Applied ARIMA model to historical data from water treatment facilities in Tanzania.
  • Used robust standard errors to address uncertainty in forecasts.
  • Analyzed the correlation between economic indicators and adoption rates.
  • ARIMA model indicated a significant positive correlation between economic indicators and adoption rates.
  • Forecasts suggest a steady increase in adoption rates over the next five years.

Abstract

Water treatment facilities in Tanzania face challenges related to adoption rates due to varying economic conditions and technological advancements. A time-series model, specifically an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model, was applied to historical data from water treatment facilities across Tanzania. Robust standard errors were used to account for uncertainty in the forecasting process. The ARIMA model showed a significant positive correlation between economic indicators and adoption rates of water treatment systems, with forecasts indicating a steady increase over the next five years. The use of time-series models provides valuable insights into predicting future trends in water treatment facility adoption in Tanzania, offering engineering solutions to enhance sustainability and efficiency. Further research should explore additional factors affecting adoption rates and validate these findings through longitudinal studies. Water Treatment Facilities, Adoption Rates, Time-Series Models, ARIMA, Forecasting, Tanzania The maintenance outcome was modelled as Y₈ₓ=₀+₁X₈ₓ+uᵢ+₈ₓ, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.

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Cite This Study

Magagila et al. (2000) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699ba05e72792ae9fd86fda7https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18723446
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