Mapping the marine distribution of eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus) in the Northeast Pacific using environmental DNA

Rare species are difficult to observe in the wild, particularly in the ocean where large spatial scales and accessibility hinder effective sampling. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a non-destructive, scalable sampling method with the potential to inform the distribution of rare species in marine ecosystems. We sample eDNA within the California Current ecosystem to estimate the distribution of eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus), a threatened anadromous smelt ranging along the coastal Northeast Pacific. We amplify eulachon DNA from thousands of water samples collected at night across two years and more than 200,000 square kilometers along the U.S. west coast. We then use spatiotemporal models to derive quantitative estimates of eulachon DNA across space, depth, and time relative to environmental covariates. We find that eulachon DNA has a distribution weighted towards the ocean surface, spatially associated with major river mouths and productive offshore banks. Temperature and prey density are key covariates, with eulachon more likely to be found in warmer waters with higher prey concentrations. We discuss how our results can augment the information currently used in eulachon recovery planning, and describe the wide applicability of our statistical models for estimating distribution and abundance for other species of conservation concern.