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February 24, 2026Scientific Reports3 citationsOpen Access

Integrating geospatial intelligence and machine learning for flood susceptibility mapping

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MRMehdi RahimiBMBahram MalekmohammadiMFMohammad Karimi Firozjaei

Key Points

  • This research aims to evaluate flood susceptibility using machine learning algorithms and remote sensing data.
  • Employs five machine learning algorithms: Extreme Gradient Boosting, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Generalized Linear Model.
  • Assesses performance of an ensemble voting model combining the algorithms.
  • Utilizes flood extent data from the Global Flood Database and ancillary data regarding climate, topography, hydrology, and land cover.
  • XGBoost, Random Forest, and LightGBM showed high predictive performances with AUC values above 0.980.
  • The ensemble voting model outperformed individual algorithms with an AUC of 0.994.
  • Results suggest advanced machine learning techniques enhance spatial flood susceptibility analysis and risk management.

Abstract

Flood susceptibility mapping using machine learning models and remote sensing datasets has emerged as an effective approach for identifying flood-prone areas. The main objective of this study was to evaluate flood susceptibility using five ML algorithms: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Generalized Linear Model (GLM), as well as to assess the performance of their combination through an ensemble voting model (integrating RF, XGBoost, LightGBM, DT, and GLM). Flood extent data from 2000 to 2018 were obtained from the Global Flood Database (GFD), while ancillary spatial data related to climate, topography, hydrological, and land cover were collected from multiple sources. The individual models exhibited varying predictive performances, with XGB (AUC = 0.985), RF (AUC = 0.984), and LightGBM (AUC = 0.982) showing strong and statistically robust results. The DT model achieved moderate accuracy (AUC = 0.972), while GLM performed the least effectively (AUC = 0.879). Subsequently, the ensemble voting model outperformed all individual algorithms (AUC = 0.994), improving mapping accuracy and increasing reliability in identifying high- susceptibility areas. Overall, the results indicate that advanced ML techniques, particularly ensemble frameworks, are highly effective tools for spatial flood susceptibility analysis and risk management.

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Cite This Study

Rahimi et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699ceda059e024144310b74fhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41014-3
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