PESI score showed highest predictive accuracy for short-term adverse outcomes in acute PE (AUC 0.84), outperforming NEWS-2, sPESI, and ESC classification.
Which prognostic risk score provides the best predictive performance for short-term adverse outcomes in patients with acute pulmonary embolism?
The PESI and NEWS-2 scores provide superior prognostic discrimination for short-term clinical outcomes in acute pulmonary embolism compared to other commonly used risk scores.
Background Risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is essential to guide clinical management, particularly regarding the need for escalated therapies. Despite the availability of several prognostic scores, their comparative performance in unselected PE populations remains uncertain.Objectives To compare the prognostic performance of six widely used risk assessment tools for acute PE in predicting short-term outcomes.Methods We retrospectively collected data from 397 consecutive patients with acute PE from a single institutional registry. Six risk scores (modified Bova, modified FAST, CPES, NEWS-2, PESI, and sPESI) were calculated at admission. The primary endpoint was the composite of in-hospital PE-related death, need for rescue thrombolysis, or severe hemodynamic instability. Secondary endpoints were the individual components of the primary endpoint and all-cause mortality up to 3 months.Results The primary endpoint occurred in 48 patients (12.1%), including PE-related death in 25(6.3%), severe hemodynamic instability in 25 (6.3%), and systemic thrombolysis in 6 (1.5%). In-hospital mortality was 52 (13.1%), and 3-month all-cause mortality was 65 (16.4%). The PESI score demonstrated the highest predictive performance for all outcomes (AUC for the primary endpoint: 0.84, 95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.90), followed by NEWS-2 and sPESI. PESI and NEWS-2 consistently showed the greatest improvement over ESC classification in terms of net reclassification and increased discrimination. Bootstrap-based ranking confirmed PESI as the most likely best-performing score, while modified Bova, FAST, and CPES showed inferior performance. Findings were consistent across all ESC risk strata.Conclusions Among commonly used prognostic scores for acute PE, PESI and NEWS-2 provide superior discrimination for short-term clinical outcomes and incremental value over ESC-based stratification. These scores may aid in refining risk assessment and guiding management in acute PE.
Leupp et al. (2026) studied this question. PESI score showed highest predictive accuracy for short-term adverse outcomes in acute PE (AUC 0.84), outperforming NEWS-2, sPESI, and ESC classification.