Explosive by nature, escalation by design: ethno-territorial diversity as a driver of cabinet conflict and decentralization’s role in Europe (1991–2020)

Ethno-territorial diversity is often seen as source of political conflict, with decentralization frequently proposed as a remedy. Yet, its effectiveness remains contested. This paper examines (1) whether ethno-territorial diversity relates to political conflict frequency and (2) whether decentralization moderates this relationship. While existing analyses mainly focus on extreme cases of violent conflict or qualitative case evidence, this study provides a quantitative account of everyday cabinet tensions, distinguishing between conflict types and intensity levels. Using negative binomial regression analyses, it explores the incidence of conflicts (N = 807) in central governments across eight European democracies: Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Sweden (1991–2020). Results confirm that diversity positively relates to conflict frequency. Decentralization intensifies this apparent effect – but only for ethno-territorial disputes and only in highly diverse contexts. These findings add to contemporary debates on the paradox of federalism, conflict-management in multinational states, and executive politics more generally.