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February 28, 2026SHILAP Revista de lepidopterología0 citationsOpen Access

Evidence for Missing Geomagnetic Reversals From Geomagnetic Reversal Frequency Model Using Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation

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YYY YoshimuraMFMasakazu FujiiHHHideitsu Hino

Key Points

  • This research aims to evaluate the frequency of geomagnetic reversals and identify potentially missing reversals in the geological record.
  • Used adaptive-bandwidth kernel density estimation (AKDE) to analyze geomagnetic reversal frequency from 0 to 155 Ma.
  • Incorporated recently identified geomagnetic reversals into the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS).
  • Determined pilot bandwidth for the AKDE through cross-validation for stability across data lengths.
  • Identified four troughs in reversal frequency after the Cretaceous Normal Superchron, spaced 13.5–15.0 million years apart.
  • One trough near 32 Ma appeared less distinct when new reversals were added, indicating sensitivity.
  • The AKDE suggested some geomagnetic reversals may be missing based on frequency curve analysis.

Abstract

Abstract The existence of missing geomagnetic reversals has been proposed, with potential for new magnetostratigraphic age controls. We estimate geomagnetic reversal frequency from 0 to 155 Ma using adaptive‐bandwidth kernel density estimation (AKDE) to evaluate data sparseness and to assess how reversal frequency changes when recently identified geomagnetic reversals are incorporated into the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) data set. AKDE is a two‐stage procedure that uses an initial density estimator based on an initial (pilot) bandwidth. We found that the pilot bandwidth determined using cross‐validation is stable with respect to data set length. The AKDE results obtained based on the cross‐validated pilot bandwidth reveal four troughs after the Cretaceous Normal Superchron, spaced 13.5–15.0 Myr apart and corresponding to relatively long chrons (>0.8 Myr). One trough near 32 Ma becomes less distinct after the four recently identified reversals are added to the data set. This sensitivity suggests that troughs in the frequency curve may indicate missing geomagnetic reversals.

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Cite This Study

Yoshimura et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a2877b0a974eb0d3c03386https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120557
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