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February 28, 2026Air Quality Atmosphere & Health3 citationsOpen Access

Carbon dioxide overload, detected in human blood, suggests a potentially toxic atmosphere within 50 years

ALAlexander N. LarcombePBP. Bierwirth

Key Points

  • To investigate the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels on human blood chemistry using indirect measurements.
  • Analyzed serum bicarbonate, calcium, and phosphorus levels from NHANES data (1999-2020).
  • Estimated trends in metabolic and mineral status related to atmospheric CO2 levels.
  • Compared blood chemistry changes against rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
  • Average serum bicarbonate levels increased over the studied period.
  • Calcium and phosphorus levels showed a steady decline.
  • Predicted blood bicarbonate values may approach unhealthy limits by 50 years from now.

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. There is mounting experimental evidence that lifetime exposure to these increasing atmospheric CO2 levels can negatively impact the normal physiology of organisms. However, directly assessing this in humans is very difficult. We analysed serum bicarbonate (HCO3−), calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) levels from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2020 as indirect proxies for atmospheric CO2 exposure. Over this period, average bicarbonate levels in this population show an increasing trend which parallels rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both Ca and P have decreased steadily over the same period. If these trends continue, blood bicarbonate values could be at the limit of the accepted healthy range in half a century, and Ca and P will be at the limit of their healthy ranges by the end of this century. Studies indicate that, after this time, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, leading to CO2 accumulation in the body, has the potential to cause a range of adverse health effects. These findings highlight the urgent need for significant reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions to safeguard public health.

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Cite This Study

Larcombe et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a287a00a974eb0d3c03758https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-026-01918-5
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