The municipal solid waste management sector is a nationally significant greenhouse gas source in Sri Lanka, yet decision makers lack comprehensive, city-level life-cycle assessment of full waste management chains. This study quantifies and compares greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential of alternative waste management scenarios for Colombo and Kandy, supporting nationally determined contributions (NDC) 3.0. Using IPCC 2021 GWP100 V1.03 as the impact assessment method, six scenarios were assessed, including business-as-usual, recycling, composting, confined cover windrow composting, anaerobic digestion, refuse-derived fuel production, incineration, pyrolysis, co-processing in cement kilns, open dumping, and sanitary landfilling. The business-as-usual scenario, dominated by open dumping, resulted in the highest greenhouse gas emissions in both Colombo and Kandy. In contrast, the integrated waste management approach (Scenario 3), combining anaerobic digestion, confined cover windrow composting, refuse-derived fuel production, and enhanced recycling, converted both cities from net emitters to net carbon sinks. Over the projection period of 2026–2035, this transition is expected to deliver substantial cumulative emission reductions, contributing significantly toward achieving NDC 3.0 waste sector targets in Sri Lanka despite the relatively small share of national baseline emissions in the sector. These findings highlight the strong mitigation potential of integrated waste management systems for advancing low-carbon urban strategies.
Bandaranayaka et al. (2026) studied this question.