River basin management under spatial inequality and land use dynamics

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Effective management of water resources requires a clear understanding of how socio-economic factors, land suitability, and environmental constraints interact. In Kazakhstan, pronounced disparities in economic structure, ecological capacity, and hydrological access pose major challenges for sustainable resource governance. This study evaluates land and water suitability across Kazakhstan’s diverse regions using a spatially explicit analytical framework that integrates demographic, economic, and environmental data. The main objective is to identify regional vulnerabilities and provide evidence-based insights for adaptive land and water management under changing water availability and infrastructure conditions, highlighting the interaction between water resource management, spatial inequality, and land use dynamics.METHODS: The analysis combined demographic and employment data with land use, hydrological, and economic indicators. A spatial interaction model for land use was applied to simulate land allocation and agricultural productivity under contrasting environmental scenarios. Input datasets included river discharge, groundwater depth, soil fertility, crop yield, market accessibility, and transport network density. Micro-experimental water allocation trials were conducted on twelve plots, each measuring between 0.5 and 1 hectare, across the Esil and Irtysh River Basins to calibrate model parameters related to irrigation response and farmer decision-making under water scarcity.FINDINGS: The model revealed pronounced regional disparities in agricultural potential. Employment in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries was highly spatially concentrated, with a coefficient of variation of 100.4 percent, indicating localized dependence on natural resources. Under simulated water stress, the land suitability index declined by 12.7 percent and hydrological accessibility decreased by 25.9 percent, whereas infrastructure expansion increased these indicators by 11.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. Groundwater depth increased from 12.4 meters to 14.9 meters under water stress, highlighting elevated extraction risk and declining irrigation feasibility. These results demonstrate that environmental constraints and socio-economic inequalities jointly shape the spatial distribution of agricultural activity and the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. CONCLUSION: Water availability and infrastructure connectivity together determine the distribution, productivity, and sustainability of agriculture in Kazakhstan. The findings provide quantitative evidence that investment in rural transport networks can mitigate some of the negative effects of water scarcity by improving access to markets and irrigation infrastructure.