Blade icing in cold climates poses significant risks to operational stability and results in substantial power generation deficits. This study establishes and validates an integrated multiscale framework, CFD-OpenFAST-Stacking, to characterize the complex aeroelastic behavior of iced wind turbines and facilitate high-fidelity power forecasting. The methodology utilizes high-fidelity CFD to quantify the aerodynamic degradation of simulated iced airfoils. These data are subsequently coupled with the OpenFAST aeroelastic platform for full-scale turbine simulations to evaluate the system’s dynamic response. A Stacking ensemble learning model is developed by synthesizing these simulation results with historical SCADA data through an innovative data-fusion approach. Numerical findings indicate that icing severely compromises aerodynamic efficiency, inducing a 17.65% reduction in the maximum lift coefficient and a 34.07% escalation in drag at the aerodynamically sensitive blade tip. Consequently, the rated power point is shifted from 10.5 m/s to 13 m/s, with performance degradation most prominent in the low-to-medium wind speed regime. Model validation demonstrates that the data-fusion technique significantly improves predictive robustness, increasing the R2 from 0.75 to 0.84 while reducing the RMSE from 37.69 to 17.04. SHAP analysis further identifies generator speed and wind speed as the primary determinants of power variability. This research substantiates the efficacy of bridging physical simulations with data-driven methodologies, providing a robust theoretical framework for performance evaluation in extreme weather environments.
Wen et al. (2026) studied this question.