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March 2, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Methodological Evaluation of Regional Monitoring Networks in Nigeria Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for System Reliability Assessment

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FUFelix UwahemeCNChika NnamdiIOIfeanyi Okoli

Key Points

  • Evaluate the reliability of regional monitoring networks using advanced forecasting methods for agriculture in Nigeria.
  • Assessed regional monitoring networks with time-series forecasting models.
  • Utilized a combination of machine learning algorithms for data analysis.
  • Predicted future agricultural data using historical data with a ±5% accuracy margin.
  • Achieved a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.83 for crop yield predictions.
  • Demonstrated strong correlation between forecasts and actual agricultural outcomes.
  • Established a framework for enhancing agricultural resilience and informed decision-making.

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture in Nigeria. Monitoring networks are essential for timely data collection and analysis, yet their reliability needs rigorous evaluation. Regional monitoring networks will be assessed using a combination of machine learning algorithms. Time-series forecasting models will predict future agricultural data with an accuracy margin of ±5% based on historical data. The model accurately predicted crop yields in the north-central region with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0. 83, indicating strong correlation between forecasts and actual outcomes. This study establishes a robust framework for evaluating monitoring systems in Nigeria using advanced forecasting techniques, enhancing agricultural resilience. Implementing these models across the country can lead to more informed decision-making and improved resource allocation in agriculture. The empirical specification follows Y=₀+^ X+, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.

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Cite This Study

Uwaheme et al. (2005) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a52e15f1e85e5c73bf1690https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18810242
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