The role of the demographic situation in the context of ensuring socio-economic security: an example of the Volga Federal District

Social security is a complex multi-component mechanism formed under the influence of a set of interrelated factors. One of the key determinants that significantly influences the formation of the social security system is the demographic situation in the country as a whole or in a particular region. Demographic processes, such as birth rates, death rates, and the population structure by age and gender, play a fundamental role in determining the socio-economic stability of society and its ability to withstand internal and external threats. As a result of the analysis conducted by the authors of this publication, fundamental negative trends in the studied sector were identified. Based on the obtained data, the author developed measures aimed at improving the demographic situation in the regions of the Volga Federal District (VFD). The study employed general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, ranking) and special economic methods (horizontal and vertical analysis). The sources of data : official statistical materials from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) for the period from 2018 to 2023. The scientific novelty lies in identifying key threats to the sustainable demographic development of the federal district and ways to minimize them. Based on the conducted research on the demographic situation in the VFD regions, key threats negatively affecting the demographic dynamics of this macro-region were identified. In particular, a decrease in the population of the VFD regions from 2018 to 2023 was observed, with the analyzed indicator declining by 856.2 thousand people. Additionally, the natural population growth also decreased during the analyzed period. The natural decline in the VFD amounted to 924,845 people. When comparing birth and death rates per 1,000 people, it is noted that the reduction in population is primarily due to a decrease in birth dynamics in the regions. These factors negatively affect the share of the working-age population. Specifically, a low share of the working-age population is noted in the Volga Federal District. Thus, in the analyzed territory, in 2023, the indicator was 56.9%, while for the same period, the average share of the working-age population in the Russian Federation was 58%.