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March 4, 20260 citationsOpen Access

The Calibration Signal — Framework Prediction Market Pre-Registration (Paper 53 / K1 / K4 / K7)

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AEAnthony W. Eckert

Key Points

  • The aim is to establish a framework for pre-registering predictions in markets to improve calibration and accuracy.
  • Utilized the void framework for structure.
  • Applied Brier score to measure prediction accuracy.
  • Implemented kill conditions K1, K4, and K7 for validation processes.
  • Found that pre-registration improves prediction reliability.
  • Established a framework that aligns market predictions with actual outcomes.

Abstract

**KEYWORDS:** void framework, pre-registration, prediction markets, calibration, Brier score, Pe implied, kill conditions K1 K4 K7, epistemic markets, falsification **Filed:** 2026-03-02 (Zenodo reissue of original 2026-02-24 commitment) **Framework:** Void Framework — Paper 53, Kill Conditions K1, K4, K7

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Cite This Study

Anthony W. Eckert (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a7cdaed48f933b5eeda32chttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18839532
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