ABSTRACT This study examines the feasibility of transitioning to a fully renewable energy system in Iran by 2050, using the LUT Energy System Transition Model with hourly resolution and nine geographical regions. Three policy‐driven scenarios are assessed, named the best policy scenario (BPS), delayed policy scenario (DPS), and current policy scenario (CPS). The model integrates all major energy‐consuming sectors, including power, heat, transport, industry, and desalination, along with sector coupling and power‐to‐X technologies. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system is technically feasible and economically viable in the BPS, driven by large‐scale solar deployment. CO 2 emissions decrease from 446 MtCO 2 in 2020 to zero by 2050. Primary energy demand reaches around 3450 TWh in the BPS, with over 93% supplied by solar photovoltaics and installed capacity exceeding 1660 GW. Despite higher initial investments, the BPS achieves the lowest levelised cost of electricity at €24.7/MWh by 2050, compared to €49.4/MWh in the CPS. System flexibility is ensured through electricity and thermal storage plus hydrogen‐based seasonal balancing. Solar‐to‐X strategies play a key role in defossilising industry and transport sectors through e‐hydrogen, e‐fuels, and e‐materials. Achieving this transition requires strong policy support, including fossil fuel subsidy removal, CO 2 pricing, and infrastructure investment.
Khatibi et al. (2026) studied this question.