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March 12, 2026Presidential Studies QuarterlyOpen Access

The Stuck Electorate: Polarization, Nationalization, and the Consolidation of Party in the Trump Era

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Authors

JCJamie L. CarsonSUStewart Ulrich

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Overview

Analyzes polarization and nationalization in the electorate, indicating implications for future elections.

Key Points

  • This research aims to examine the nature of the American electorate during the Trump era, focusing on polarization and party consolidation.
  • Analysis of ANES, CES, and exit poll data from elections between 2016 and 2024.
  • Comparison of voter demographics and behaviors across different elections.
  • Exploration of the impact of race, gender, education, and income on electorate alignment.
  • The electorate shows significant similarities to previous elections, indicating stagnation.
  • Deep polarization exists, with race as a primary dividing factor between parties.
  • Democrats maintain support among African Americans, while Republicans see gains among Latinos and Asians.

Cite This Study

Carson et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b2588496eeacc4fcec8459https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.70041
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