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March 13, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Pre-Deployment Normative Evaluation: An Extended Phenotype Framework for Legislative Quality Assurance

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ILIgnacio Adrián LERER

Key Points

  • The aim is to address the lack of pre-deployment evaluation in legislative production and propose a structured evaluation framework.
  • Proposed a three-phase evaluation framework: Phase I assesses institutional safety, Phase II evaluates normative efficacy, Phase III measures systemic impact.
  • Utilized Extended Phenotype Theory and multi-level Evolutionary Game Theory to structure the evaluation approach.
  • Identified key metrics: Institutional Hysteresis Rate, Constitutional Lock-in Index, and Institutional Evolvability Index.
  • The framework generates five falsifiable predictions related to legislative outcomes.
  • A prospective test case is presented, confirming pre-promulgation predictions from Ley 27802 in Argentina.
  • The findings indicate that the absence of evaluation leads to ineffective legal norms and institutional deformation.

Abstract

Legislative production is the only complex process in modern economies that operates without systematic pre-deployment evaluation. Pharmaceutical compounds undergo three-phase clinical trials before reaching patients. Engineering projects undergo stress testing before accepting loads. Financial instruments require prospectus review before public offering. Legal norms, which modify institutional substrates irreversibly and affect entire populations, enter the system without any equivalent quality filter. This paper argues that the absence of pre-deployment normative evaluation is not merely a policy gap but an evolutionary design failure: it permits memeplexes with high political fitness but low institutional effectiveness to colonize the legal system and generate irreversible institutional deformation. Drawing on Extended Phenotype Theory (EPT) and multi-level Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT), I propose a three-phase pre-deployment evaluation framework structurally analogous to pharmaceutical clinical trials: Phase I (institutional safety), measuring projected Institutional Hysteresis Rate (IHR) and identifying irreversible phenotypic effects; Phase II (normative efficacy), simulating replicator dynamics under selective pressure using the synthetic laboratory tools validated by Shapira et al. (2026); and Phase III (systemic impact), assessing interaction between the proposed norm and the pre-existing extended phenotype of the regulatory domain, measured through the Constitutional Lock-in Index (CLI) and the Institutional Evolvability Index (IEI). The framework produces five falsifiable predictions and one prospective test case (Ley 27802, Argentina, 2026) where pre-promulgation predictions were confirmed by the enacted text. I argue that this framework is not a de lege ferenda proposal requiring new legislation but the institutional formalization of a duty of legislative diligence already derivable from Argentine positive law (Articles 1757-1758, Civil and Commercial Code) as applied to the process of normative production. The publication of Shapira et al. on February 23, 2026, establishing that institutional simulation tools exist and are scientifically validated, constitutes the methodological threshold that transforms the omission of pre-deployment evaluation from an excusable limitation into actionable negligence.

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Cite This Study

Ignacio Adrián LERER (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b3acf302a1e69014ccf135https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18947186
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