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March 14, 2026Business Horizons0 citationsOpen Access

Permacrisis readiness: What 80+ scenario interventions reveal

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MSMatthew J. SpaniolNRNicholas J. RowlandTATroels Behrenthz Andersen

Key Points

  • To explore how scenario planning can help small and medium-sized enterprises build organizational readiness during crises.
  • Analysis of a national Danish initiative supporting over 80 SMEs in scenario planning.
  • Conducted two waves of focus group interviews with facilitating consultants.
  • Identified role-shifts in strategists from Predictors to Actors.
  • Outlined parallel roles for managers as Listeners, Collaborators, and others.
  • Demonstrated that scenario planning can enhance readiness in turbulent times.

Abstract

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly challenged by “permacrisis” – a prolonged period of overlapping disruptions that drain resources and erode strategic advantages. Scenario planning has been recommended to aid firms in navigating such turbulence, yet SMEs rarely know what to expect when adopting these methods. This article draws on a national Danish initiative that supported more than 80 SMEs in using scenario planning to strengthen organizational readiness. Two waves of focus group interviews with the facilitating consultants were used to identify a set of role-shifts that strategists experience as they work with scenarios: moving from Predictors, to Scenarists, to Irritators, to Integrators, and, ultimately, to Actors. Managers mirror this journey through parallel roles as Listeners, Collaborators, Delegators, Deciders, and Enablers. These pathways illustrate how strategists and their managers “build back readiness” in SMEs during turbulent times.

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Cite This Study

Spaniol et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b4ad8d18185d8a39800f1bhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2026.03.001
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