Abstract Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) predicts that any accelerating complex system collapses when the imposed rate of change (α) exceeds the system’s recovery capacity (γ), as formalized by the stability index where C is structural complexity. Mars colonization represents an extreme case of forced acceleration on a planetary scale: human activity seeks to increase C (biosphere, infrastructure, technology) at a rate α ≈ 0. 35 ± 0. 10 yr⁻¹, far exceeding the natural Martian recovery capacity γMars ≈ 0. 05–0. 10 yr⁻¹. This results in GMars ≈ 0. 14–0. 29 << 1, leading to rapid accumulation of irrecoverable structural debt and systemic collapse within 15–40 years of active exponential growth — long before a self-sustaining, multi-generational colony can be established. Large-scale orbital engineering (moving moons, asteroids, or planets) within the Solar System is even more dangerous: such interventions increase α across multiple coupled systems (Earth, Mars, asteroid belt, Jupiter resonances) by 10²–10⁶ times the natural background, while no known mechanism exists to raise γ globally. GCST calculates integrated risk to Earth at ~5–30% per major experiment, with consequences ranging from periodic impacts to long-term biospheric R-collapse. Until planetary-scale protective mechanisms capable of maintaining G ≥ 1 are developed, such activities are equivalent to inducing artificial multi-planetary R-collapse and must be prohibited.
Roman Lukin (2026) studied this question.