Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture globally, impacting crop yields and food security. Nigeria is highly climate-vulnerable, with over 70% of livelihoods rain-fed, increasing exposure to floods, droughts, food insecurity, and rural poverty. This study investigates the yield response of arable crops in Nigeria under changing climatic conditions, focusing on the mediating influence of agricultural food policies. We used secondary data spanning 1980-2019 from reliable institutions, including the World Development Indicator (WDI), the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimator was used to analyze the nature of crop yield response to address endogeneity and simultaneity bias. Findings reveal that the yield of crops such as maize, rice, soybean, cassava, yam, and groundnuts exhibits varied responses, both positive and negative, to temperature fluctuations and altered precipitation patterns. Moreover, the study explores how governmental policies, including price incentives, mediate these impacts. The result indicates that price incentives received from the agricultural food policies help to mitigate the negative climate change impact on the yield of the identified arable crops. Existing initiatives, such as farm zones and settlements, require reevaluation to align with current climate and production realities. • Climate Change Significantly Affects Crop Yields Differently • Agricultural Policies Influence Yield Resilience • Mixed Effectiveness of Past Agricultural Policies • Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Reveals Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics • Policy Implications Emphasize Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)
Kolapo et al. (2026) studied this question.