Explaining the Path to Urban Sustainability: Unraveling Nonlinear Pathways for Ecological Resilience Under Extreme Weather

ABSTRACT Amid an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, enhancing urban ecological resilience (UER) is crucial for achieving sustainable development. By incorporating climate shocks into the “Pressure‐State‐Response” framework, this study expands the existing UER assessment system. The CRITIC weight method is employed to evaluate UER across 278 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2022, and its spatio‐temporal evolution is analysed from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, a stacking ensemble model integrated with SHAP is applied to reveal the association patterns between UER and socioeconomic factors. The results demonstrate an upward trajectory in UER, with a recent deceleration and subsequent fluctuation. Notable regional disparities persist, especially between eastern and western China. The modeling approach identifies the digital economy as the most influential predictive factor, which exhibits a nonlinear pattern. While its association with UER remains positive overall, the strength of this association diminishes slightly at higher observed digital economy development levels. Meanwhile, other socioeconomic factors also display diverse nonlinear trajectories, which means that their correlations with UER will strengthen or weaken after exceeding a certain threshold. These findings underscore the necessity of integrating climate resilience into urban planning and provide an empirical basis for formulating differentiated policies to enhance UER.