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March 19, 2026Economic Theory Bulletin1 citationsOpen Access

Prior-free Blackwell

MRMaxwell Rosenthal

Key Points

  • The aim is to create a prior-free decision-making model that evaluates actions based on their worst-case payoffs.
  • Develop a prior-free framework for decision analysis.
  • Evaluate the worst-case payoffs for different state distributions.
  • Propose a ranking system for experiments based on their informativity.
  • E is found to be more informative than E' if it consistently yields higher decision problem values.
  • The comparison is weaker than the classical Blackwell order if the null space conditions are satisfied.

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops a prior-free model of data-driven decision making in which the decision maker observes the entire distribution of signals generated by a known experiment under an unknown distribution of the state variable and evaluates actions according to their worst-case payoff over the set of state distributions consistent with that observation. We propose a ranking of experiments in which E is robustly more informative than E' E ′ if the value of the decision maker’s problem after observing E is always at least as high as the value of the decision maker’s problem after observing E'. E ′. This comparison, which is strictly weaker than Blackwell’s classical order, holds if and only if the null space of E is contained in the null space of E'. E ′.

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Cite This Study

Maxwell Rosenthal (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69bb92f2496e729e62980ac8https://doi.org/10.1007/s40505-026-00307-6
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